The Collapse of the International Order and the Complex Future of Central Asian Security

The world is witnessing the unraveling of the traditional international order, and Central Asian countries are forced to adapt to these new global realities. According to Marat Mamadshayev, editor of the Institute for War and Peace Reporting (IWPR) in Tajikistan, the old alliances and structures have proven ineffective, and the new era of global chaos poses serious challenges for Central Asian governments.

The conflict between Iran and Israel, with the U.S. joining the fray, is a clear sign of the emergence of a new reality and the disorder in the traditional system of international relations. The decline of international institutions such as the United Nations and related global initiatives, including the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has become evident.

The Weakening of International Law
Mamadshayev argues that the fundamental pillars of the post-World War II international order—international institutions and the rule of law—are now facing a crisis of effectiveness and legitimacy. This crisis has rendered them unable to manage major global conflicts. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, these institutions have been functionally paralyzed, and the veto power of permanent members has further reduced the efficiency of the Security Council.

Moreover, the UN’s peacekeeping activities are facing a financial crisis. Since 2014, no major new missions have been launched by the UN, even as the number of global conflicts has reached unprecedented levels.

Populism and the Attack on International Law
The weakening of international law has been accelerated by the rise of populist movements worldwide. These movements view global institutions as tools of political elites to undermine national sovereignty. This mindset has led countries to withdraw from international treaties, reduce financial support for global institutions, and disregard the principles of multilateralism.

The reduction in funding for UN peacekeeping missions and the retreat of Western aid programs like USAID have created a governance and development vacuum in regions like Central Asia. This vacuum is being filled by new players like China and Gulf countries, who are investing without regard for human rights or democratic conditions.

The Ineffectiveness of International Institutions in Conflicts
The recent conflicts between Iran, Israel, and the U.S. highlight the ineffectiveness of emerging international institutions like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Iran, a member of both organizations, received no practical support from these bodies during the conflicts. Similarly, the tensions between India and Pakistan, both SCO members, underscore the fragility of these structures. In contrast, Western institutions like the European Union and NATO, despite their flaws, remain more reliable partners.

The Path to Security and Politics in Central Asia
Mamadshayev believes that the policy of multilateralism, which once allowed Central Asian countries to balance between major powers, can now be a source of danger in the shadow of geopolitical rivalries. Countries in the region must now prioritize their security. Relying on Russia is no longer a viable option, especially after Moscow’s unilateral recognition of the Taliban regime in Kabul, which is seen as a sign of the ineffectiveness of Russian diplomacy.

At the same time, closer ties with China come with their own risks, including concerns over Beijing’s territorial claims in the region. Therefore, Central Asian countries should move towards establishing a collective security system while expanding their relations with more reliable powers like European countries and Turkey.

Economic Opportunities Amid Geopolitical Rivalries
In the final section, Mamadshayev emphasizes the importance of regional cooperation to attract investment and develop shared infrastructure. Central Asia is now at the center of global mega-projects like China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Europe’s Global Gateway, and the growing investments from Gulf countries. The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, or “Middle Corridor,” which has seen a significant increase in traffic since 2022, is emerging as a new lifeline for regional trade. Central Asian countries must formulate a unified plan to direct foreign investment in their favor and prevent the region from becoming a geopolitical battleground.