Russia’s Recognition of Taliban Marks Start of Regional Legitimacy Wave

Kokcha News Agency – On July 3, 2025, Russia officially recognized the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan, marking a significant diplomatic milestone nearly four years after the Taliban’s return to power. The announcement came after the Taliban’s acting Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, accepted the credentials of Russia’s ambassador to Kabul, Dmitry Zhirnov. Simultaneously, the Taliban flag was raised for the first time at the embassy of the “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” in Moscow.

This move deals a significant blow to the West’s four-year effort to build an informal international consensus aimed at preventing unconditional recognition of the Taliban. While a global domino effect is unlikely, the Taliban’s increased regional engagement could lead to diplomatic recognition by some neighboring countries.

Factors Behind Russia’s Decision:
Russia’s decision, criticized by Afghan civil society groups, especially women’s rights activists abroad, was influenced by a combination of factors. The timing likely relates to Russia’s declining regional influence following U.S. military intervention in the recent Israel-Iran conflict and the fall of Moscow’s long-time ally, the Assad regime in Syria, which was subsequently recognized by the West. Recognizing the “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” could help Russia regain some regional influence and strengthen its anti-terrorism strategy against ISIS-K by encouraging the Taliban to use Russian weapons and cooperate in the fight against drug trafficking. Additionally, this move could pave the way for expanded trade and economic cooperation in energy, transportation, agriculture, and infrastructure. Notably, in April 2025, Russia’s Supreme Court lifted the ban on the Taliban, which had been designated a “terrorist organization” for over 20 years.

Global Engagement on the Rise:
The Taliban took control of Kabul on August 15, 2021, following the withdrawal of foreign forces and the collapse of the U.S.-Taliban Doha peace agreement (2020). This led to the closure of most foreign embassies in Afghanistan, although Russia, China, and a few others maintained their presence.

Since then, Western countries have sought to build an informal international consensus making Taliban recognition conditional on a set of demands, including guarantees for women’s and girls’ rights, the formation of an inclusive government, and the reduction of terrorist threats from Afghan soil. However, this consensus has gradually eroded, especially as the Taliban imposed stricter internal policies and no serious prospects for armed resistance or foreign military intervention emerged.

As a result, foreign engagement with the Taliban has increased, but it had not led to formal recognition before Russia’s decision. According to a December 2024 report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), this situation was described as the “new normal,” with Taliban-appointed representatives in diplomatic missions abroad and increased foreign diplomatic presence in Afghanistan.

Taliban’s Growing Diplomatic Presence:
By July 2024, the Taliban had official representatives in 12 countries. The first Taliban chargé d’affaires was sent to Pakistan in October 2021, the first ambassador to China in January 2024, and the first military attaché to Russia in March 2024. By July 2024, Taliban chargés d’affaires were also present in Iran, Malaysia, Qatar, Turkey, the UAE, and four of the five Central Asian countries (excluding Tajikistan).

The Taliban has increased pressure on countries to replace representatives appointed by the previous government. According to IISS data, by July 2025, the number of Afghan diplomatic missions under Taliban control or cooperation reached 23, up from just 11 in 2024. This includes the appointment of Taliban ambassadors to the UAE (August 2024), Pakistan (May 2025), Turkey (June 2025), and Russia (July 2025), as well as chargés d’affaires in Egypt, Indonesia, and Oman. A Taliban ambassador is also expected to be appointed to Kazakhstan, a first among Central Asian countries.

After August 2021, many Afghan embassies in Europe remained operational with diplomats appointed by the previous government. The Taliban expressed satisfaction with only five missions—Bulgaria, Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Spain, and the Munich consulate.

However, on July 30, 2024, the Taliban announced the cancellation of consular services for 13 countries, including Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK, citing “corruption, lack of transparency,” and especially “lack of coordination with the Taliban Foreign Ministry.”

Future Prospects:
Russia’s recognition of the Taliban, just before the fourth anniversary of their return to power (August 15, 2025), has broken the international consensus against them. This move is likely to prompt some regional countries—which have increased their engagement with the Taliban over the past four years—to formally recognize the group in the coming weeks and months.