The Azerbaijan-Turkey-Israel “Gas Triangle” Supported by the U.S. or Something More?

Kokcha News Agency: The so-called “Gas Triangle” of Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Israel, supported by the United States, is becoming a significant force in regional geopolitics. This alliance, which centers on energy cooperation, is not only strengthening economic ties but also reshaping political dynamics in the South Caucasus and the Middle East.

Recent reports from Reuters suggest that the Trump administration is considering the inclusion of Azerbaijan and several Central Asian countries in the Abraham Accords, a U.S.-backed initiative aimed at normalizing relations with Israel. This move comes as the Gaza conflict intensifies, and the U.S. seeks to expand its influence in resource-rich regions like the South Caucasus and Central Asia.

Azerbaijan, a long-time ally of Israel, has been a key player in this energy partnership. The country has significantly increased its energy exports to Israel since October 2024, despite the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region. In return, Azerbaijan has become the largest importer of Israeli weapons, with defense cooperation reaching new heights.

The recent inauguration of the Azerbaijan-Turkey gas pipeline, which runs through Syria, marks another milestone in this alliance. The pipeline, which officially opened on August 2, is expected to transport 6 million cubic meters of gas daily from the Caspian Sea to Syria, with plans to extend it to Haifa in northern Israel. This project, supported by both Ankara and Baku, is seen as a strategic move to strengthen economic and political ties between Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Israel, with the backing of the U.S.

The “Gas Triangle” is not just about energy; it has broader geopolitical implications. Azerbaijan and Turkey are positioning themselves as key players in the South Caucasus, aiming to create an energy corridor that connects the Caspian region to the Middle East and Europe. This move could potentially marginalize Russia and Iran, both of which have significant interests in the region.

Iran, in particular, has expressed concerns about the growing influence of this alliance. Analysts warn that the “Gas Triangle” could lead to increased tensions in the region, particularly between Iran and Israel. The potential extension of the pipeline to Haifa and its branch to Tripoli in Lebanon could further complicate the already volatile situation in the Middle East.

The U.S. support for this alliance is seen as part of a broader strategy to counter Russian and Iranian influence in the region. By strengthening ties between Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Israel, the U.S. aims to create a pro-Western bloc that can serve as a counterbalance to Moscow and Tehran.

However, this alliance is not without its challenges. The involvement of Syria, a country still recovering from years of civil war, adds a layer of complexity to the project. Moreover, the potential for increased tensions with Iran and Russia could lead to further instability in the region.

As the “Gas Triangle” continues to evolve, its impact on regional geopolitics will be closely watched. The alliance has the potential to reshape energy flows and political alliances in the South Caucasus and the Middle East, but it also carries significant risks.