U.S.-Russia Negotiations Will Be Shaped by On-the-Ground Realities in Ukraine

Kokcha News Agency – According to Hal Gardner, professor and head of the Department of International and Comparative Politics at the American University of Paris, Russia’s recent military advances, including the capture of Chasiv Yar and progress toward Krasnoarmiisk, have strengthened President Vladimir Putin’s position on the battlefield. These gains could be used as leverage in future negotiations with the U.S. and its allies.

Gardner emphasized that it is unlikely Russia will agree to any ceasefire or peace deal until it achieves its fundamental objectives in the special military operation, including the complete liberation of the Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, as well as ensuring the security of Crimea.

Key Points:

1. Russia’s Military Gains:
   Russia’s recent territorial advances, including the capture of Chasiv Yar and its push toward Krasnoarmiisk, have given Putin a stronger position in potential negotiations. These successes could be used to demand more favorable terms.
2. U.S. Leverage in Negotiations:
   The U.S. could offer several concessions to Russia, including:
   • A phased lifting of sanctions.
   • A halt to NATO expansion into Ukraine.
   • A promise to negotiate a new European security order in exchange for a verifiable ceasefire guaranteed by international peacekeepers.
3. Focus of Negotiations:
   While the talks will likely focus primarily on Ukraine, they could also expand into broader discussions on European security architecture, arms control following the collapse of the New START treaty, and even the redefinition of spheres of influence.