Netanyahu’s Political Survival Hinges on the Fate of Gaza

Kokcha News Agency – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently stated in an interview with the Israeli network i24 that he is on a “historic and spiritual mission” and is emotionally tied to the dream of a “Greater Israel.” These remarks by the leader of the occupying regime have drawn strong reactions from countries and officials worldwide, especially in the region, and widespread condemnation among Muslim nations.

The foreign ministers of 31 Arab and Islamic countries, the Arab League, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and the Gulf Cooperation Council issued a statement condemning Netanyahu’s remarks about the so-called “Greater Israel” plan, describing it as a direct threat to Arab national security and the sovereignty of states.

Netanyahu’s Political Survival at Stake

In this context, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi responded to Netanyahu’s statements about “Greater Israel,” noting that Western media often accuse anyone who mentions the Zionist idea of “Greater Israel” of “anti-Semitism.”

To analyze the various dimensions of this plan, its feasibility, and the obstacles Israel faces, we held an analytical session with Seyyed Hadi Borhani, a professor of Palestinian studies at the University of Tehran, and Mansour Barati, a Palestinian affairs expert. The first two parts of this discussion have already been published, and the third and final part is as follows:

Netanyahu’s Political Calculations

With one year left until Israel’s next election and several critical regional issues on the table, Netanyahu’s efforts to use this one-year window and raise issues like “Greater Israel” are significant.

Dr. Barati explained that Netanyahu’s motivations for promoting the “Greater Israel” idea are partly rooted in electoral goals and domestic consumption, though they cannot be reduced to just that. Territorial expansion is inherent in Zionism, but proposing such a plan now is not aligned with the realities on the ground.

For example, before the October 7th events, in the November 2022 elections, the Likud party secured 32 seats, and Netanyahu’s coalition held 64 seats. However, recent polls show Likud’s support dropping to around 17 seats, a 50% decline. Although Likud has slightly recovered in the past two years, the coalition’s total seats remain between 48 and 51, far from the 61 needed to form a government.

Netanyahu’s position is weak, and he is currently seen as the likely loser in the upcoming elections, according to reliable polls. However, four key issues could still help him:

1. Gaza: If Israel achieves full occupation and establishes an alternative government, though this is highly unlikely.
2. West Bank: Annexation could shift some votes in his favor.
3. Lebanon: Disarming Hezbollah could boost his standing, though this is extremely difficult given Lebanon’s internal structure.
4. Iran: Any action against Iran could potentially improve Netanyahu’s position.

Gaza: The Decisive Factor

Dr. Borhani highlighted that Israel’s approach to Gaza is crucial. Despite heavy bombardment and widespread destruction, Hamas’ resistance remains unprecedented. Israel has failed to achieve its primary objectives: eliminating Hamas, freeing hostages, and fully occupying Gaza.

If the war ends today, Israel would face a historic defeat, and Netanyahu’s political career would likely be over. Netanyahu insists on continuing the war because ending it now would mean his political demise. His political survival is tied to Hamas’ fate.

Hamas’ Resilience

Despite Israel’s overwhelming military and technological superiority, Hamas has maintained its combat capabilities. Estimates suggest Hamas has lost around 10,000 fighters but has managed to recruit new members to compensate. Israel’s repeated operations, including the recent “Iron Fist” campaign, have failed to deliver a decisive victory.

If Hamas continues to resist, Netanyahu’s political future will come to an end. He has repeatedly launched new operations, claiming Hamas would be defeated, but none have succeeded. If this latest operation also fails, Netanyahu will be politically finished in Israel.

Israel’s actions in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, and against Iran will shape Netanyahu’s political fate. However, the unprecedented resistance of Hamas has already dealt a significant blow to Israel’s military and political goals. Netanyahu’s insistence on continuing the war reflects his desperate attempt to avoid a historic defeat that would end his political career.