Iran Faces Two Options: Diplomacy or Pressure, Says Expert

Kokcha News Agency – Morteza Maki, an expert on European affairs, stated that Iran currently faces two primary options: diplomacy or pressure. He suggested that a temporary agreement between Tehran and the European Troika (France, Germany, and the UK) could partially reduce the pressure on Iran, but the country must make significant changes in its foreign and domestic policies to manage its global disputes effectively.

The countdown for the reimposition of UN sanctions began after South Korea’s draft resolution to extend the suspension of sanctions against Iran failed to pass in the UN Security Council. The six UN sanctions resolutions, dating back to the 1980s, are set to be automatically reinstated within a week.

In the meantime, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council issued a statement highlighting that despite the Foreign Ministry’s cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and proposals to resolve the nuclear issue, the actions of some European countries, including the activation of the “snapback” mechanism, have effectively halted cooperation with the IAEA and the Cairo agreement between Iran and the safeguards body.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, accompanied by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, is set to travel to New York this week, a move seen by observers as a last-ditch effort to resolve disputes with Western countries. Diplomatic efforts by Iran to prevent the return of the six UN Security Council resolutions have intensified, with a focus on preserving the remaining avenues and proposing rational frameworks to reduce tensions with the European Troika.

However, the three European countries involved in the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) appear to be under political pressure from the U.S. and Israel, complicating the path to reconciliation. Some analysts believe that the upcoming opportunity in New York could be a turning point in breaking the current diplomatic deadlock.

Maki noted that even if a temporary agreement is reached between Tehran and the West, Iran will inevitably need to adjust its foreign and security policies to align with global powers, including China, Russia, and Western countries.

In a related discussion, Amirali Abolfath, an expert on U.S. affairs, emphasized that the reimposition of UN sanctions against Iran is unstoppable unless Tehran fully complies with Washington’s demands. He argued that the U.S. expects Iran to halt uranium enrichment, cease its missile programs, and end activities deemed “malicious” by the U.S., including those attributed to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Abolfath also pointed out that China and Russia, despite their public statements, are unlikely to adhere to the sanctions in practice, as they have found ways to circumvent them in the past.

Maki, on the other hand, suggested that Iran should avoid impulsive decisions and instead focus on balanced foreign relations with China, Russia, and Western countries. He stressed that Iran’s foreign policy must be recalibrated to navigate the current regional and global challenges effectively.