Why Did Russia Recognize the Taliban’s Regime in Afghanistan? / The New “Great Game” in Central and South Asia

Kokche News Agency reports that, according to an analysis by the “Special Eurasia” think tank, Russia’s recognition of Afghanistan’s Taliban government in July 2025 is part of a broader geopolitical strategy to increase Moscow’s influence in the region. This shift follows Russia’s removal of the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations, indicating an intent to deepen cooperation in trade, infrastructure, and regional security, including counter-narcotics efforts.

This recognition marks a calculated transition from informal engagement to full diplomatic legitimacy amid shifting regional power balances. It also underscores Russia’s desire to establish Afghanistan as a key partner in energy transit, mineral resources, and infrastructure projects—potentially challenging China’s regional ambitions.

The recognition could serve as a catalyst for other states, notably China, Central Asian countries, and Gulf Arab nations, to also legitimize the Taliban’s government, driven by economic, security, or strategic interests. Such moves threaten longstanding international norms on state legitimacy, potentially encouraging armed groups elsewhere to pursue similar recognition by leveraging geopolitical utility.

Western responses remain cautious. While the U.S. and NATO allies continue their complex diplomatic calculations, Moscow’s overtures and recognition deepen the fragmentation of regional alliances and could accelerate the “new Great Game” for influence over Afghanistan and neighboring areas.

Analysis of Risks:

• Internal instability: The oppressive Taliban regime, especially its restrictions on women, could weaken economic and diplomatic efforts.
• Terrorism threats: An increase in jihadist propaganda and violence, especially from groups like ISIS-K, might target both Taliban and Russian interests.
• Western reactions: Likely sanctions, diplomatic isolations, and increased efforts to counter Russian influence.
• Regional competition: Countries like China, Central Asian republics, Pakistan, and Gulf monarchies may intensify diplomatic and military engagement, heralding a new regional “Great Game.”

Short to Long-Term Outlook:

• Next 6 months: Expansion of diplomatic and trade initiatives, including embassy-level ties, trade delegations, and infrastructure planning.
• 6 to 24 months: Possible formal treaties between Russia and Taliban on energy transit, agriculture, counter-narcotics, and security cooperation; potential deployment of Russian forces in Afghanistan to combat ISIS-K.
• 2 to 5 years: Afghanistan could emerge as a central power in the new regional order, with recognition from other influential actors, leading to a new phase of influence and conflict—redefining regional geopolitics.