Planned Collapse: The Fall of the Afghan Republic

Kokcha News Agency – The collapse of the Afghan Republic on August 15, 2021, was not merely a change of government or a shift of power in Kabul. Instead, it was the culmination of several intricate geopolitical, security, and intelligence processes that had been set in motion years earlier and were systematically executed to reach this point.

Afghanistan, once seemingly aligned with the West, became the battleground for the conflicting strategies of regional and global powers. This transformation was the direct result of a network of decisions, agreements, interventions, and internal and external incompetence that systematically weakened the country’s political, security, and social foundations.

Roots of the Collapse: From Secret Agreements to the Final Scenario
The process of this collapse cannot be understood without revisiting the mid-2000s. Around 2007, the United States and its allies began engaging with the Taliban under the guise of reconciliation and integration into Afghanistan’s political structure. However, this was part of a broader plan to reshape the region’s security dynamics. Evidence suggests that the gradual strengthening of the Taliban, the creation of informal communication channels, and even tactical coordination on the battlefield were part of this strategy. In this plan, the Taliban were not merely a rebel group but a “state-building force” that could provide security in certain areas while also acting as a destabilizing agent by harboring multinational terrorist groups when necessary.

Engineering the Collapse from Within
The first step toward this goal was the weakening of the existing political system. The gradual withdrawal of operational and intelligence support for the Afghan government was part of this process. The installation of Ashraf Ghani as president, with his ethnocentric policies and emotional decision-making, deepened the divide between political and jihadi leaders. Ghani’s monopolistic policies and distrust of experienced forces marginalized a significant portion of political actors, pushing them toward regional and international intelligence games. This not only fueled internal opposition but also facilitated greater infiltration by foreign intelligence services.

The Army: From the Backbone of Security to a Political Tool
The Afghan National Army, which could have served as the backbone of national security, gradually transformed from a professional and national force into a dependent, politicized, and fragile structure. Absolute reliance on U.S. and NATO financial aid and military advice prevented the army from developing independent decision-making and operational capabilities. The promotion of ethnic favoritism, the creation of political networks within the command structure, and the appointment of inexperienced officers based on ethnic and political ties severely undermined military effectiveness. Replacing experienced officers with loyalists, mafia-linked elements, and inexperienced personnel destroyed the army’s operational capacity against complex security threats, severely weakening both its combat effectiveness and the morale of its troops.

The National Unity Government: Unity in Name, Division in Practice
The formation of the National Unity Government after a controversial election did not restore political cohesion but instead deepened the divides. The government was split into two distinct political camps: Ashraf Ghani, with his authoritarian policies and personal stubbornness, and Abdullah Abdullah, with his passive approach, effectively created two parallel power centers that competed and undermined each other rather than cooperating on critical security and political issues. This situation provided a golden opportunity for regional and international intelligence services to exploit the division and accelerate the collapse.

Structural Corruption and Social Insecurity
Meanwhile, widespread administrative corruption and the infiltration of mafia networks into state structures, particularly in security institutions, eroded the pillars of governance from within. Bribery, cronyism, bullying, and unfair resource distribution widened the gap between the people and the government. Kidnappings, armed robberies, urban and rural insecurity, and the expansion of organized crime networks brought the government to a point where it could not even ensure the safety of citizens in the capital. This crisis of public trust was one of the key factors in the rapid fall of Kabul.

Media: Hidden Players in the Soft War
The role of the media in this process cannot be ignored. So-called “free” media, many of which were funded by foreign sources, instead of boosting national morale and supporting stability, often highlighted the government’s weaknesses, failures, and corruption, contributing to the psychological weakening of society. Through targeted and sometimes biased coverage, these media outlets portrayed the Taliban as an “inevitable force” or even a “negotiable political option” in the public eye, setting the stage for the system’s collapse.

Afghanistan on the Brink of a New Great Game
In summary, the fall of the Afghan Republic was not the result of a simple conspiracy or a random event but the product of a multi-layered and complex process in which domestic, regional, and global actors each played their part. With this collapse, Afghanistan entered a new phase of the “Great Game,” where the Taliban serve as a tool in the service of new security equations, capable of safeguarding the interests of some powers while acting as an instrument of pressure and destabilization against others. In such a context, a precise understanding of these processes and the actors involved is a prerequisite for any future strategy to redefine Afghanistan’s place in the geopolitical landscape.