Five-Year Development Strategy Announced: Is Development Possible Under Taliban Rule?

Kokcha News Agency – The Taliban’s leader has unveiled a five-year national development strategy, aiming to address Afghanistan’s economic and social challenges. However, the country remains one of the five poorest nations globally, with over 23 million people reliant on humanitarian aid and nearly 5 million children facing severe malnutrition, according to the World Bank and the United Nations.

Afghanistan’s economy, which experienced a sharp decline of 30% in 2021, is now showing fragile growth of around 2.3%. However, this growth is unsustainable given the current institutional and political structures. For a country in such dire straits, a realistic and scientific roadmap for development is crucial. Yet, beyond the ambiguities surrounding this strategy, the fundamental question is whether development is even possible under Taliban rule.

Economic Development:
Economic development is a multidimensional concept that goes beyond mere GDP growth. Economists agree that development involves sustained improvements in living conditions through institutional changes, expanded opportunities, poverty reduction, improved education and health, and broader public participation in social and economic life. Historical evidence shows that countries can achieve high GDP growth without translating it into meaningful development. Over the past half-century, the focus has shifted towards qualitative factors such as human capital, effective institutions, and individual freedoms. Economists like Amartya Sen argue that true development occurs when economic growth is accompanied by the expansion of human capabilities, fairer wealth distribution, and the guarantee of freedoms.

Institutions: The Rules of the Game:
The quality of political and economic institutions determines a country’s future. Nobel laureates Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson (2024) have shown that nations achieve development when their institutions are inclusive. Inclusive institutions ensure property rights, foster healthy competition, and enable broad political participation, creating incentives for investment and innovation. In contrast, extractive institutions concentrate power and resources in the hands of a few, leading to corruption, stagnation, and eventual collapse. Historical examples, from the Maya Empire to the Soviet Union, illustrate how extractive institutions lead to developmental failure.

Afghanistan’s Institutional Crisis:
Afghanistan has long been trapped in a cycle of extractive institutions, and the Taliban are now reproducing the worst forms of these structures. Power is concentrated within a narrow circle, political participation is eliminated, transparency and accountability are absent, and national resources are used to consolidate political dominance rather than public welfare. According to Transparency International (2024), Afghanistan remains one of the most corrupt countries, and the UN Security Council has stated that there is no prospect for sustainable development as long as the Taliban continue their current policies.

The Role of Women in Development:
One of the most glaring examples of extractive institutions in Afghanistan is the systematic exclusion of women. The World Economic Forum’s 2024 report ranks Afghanistan as the worst country for gender inequality, with over 75% of the gender gap remaining in education, health, employment, and political participation. Women and girls are entirely barred from secondary and higher education, female employment has virtually disappeared, and women’s access to healthcare is severely restricted. The UN Security Council’s 2025 report emphasizes that there is no clear path to peace and prosperity in Afghanistan unless the Taliban lift restrictions on women and adhere to fundamental human rights principles.

Education: The Foundation of Development:
Education and human capital, essential pillars of development, have been severely damaged under Taliban rule. Over 2.5 million girls are denied access to school, 103,000 girls have been barred from universities, and thousands of educators have been dismissed or have fled the country. The Taliban have transformed education into a tool for ideological indoctrination, removing critical subjects from the curriculum and hiring unqualified individuals as professors. This approach not only destroys the country’s scientific and technical capacities but also threatens its future by reproducing ideological violence.

Social Capital: Eroded Trust:
Social capital, which includes trust, norms, and networks that enable collective action, has been severely eroded under Taliban rule. Systematic discrimination against women and minorities, unequal distribution of aid, and brutal repression have shattered public trust and cooperation mechanisms. This crisis of trust has become a significant barrier to stability and development.

The Taliban’s ideology is fundamentally at odds with the principles of development. While some short-term economic measures may lead to GDP growth, this growth is unsustainable and not rooted in the real foundations of development. Development requires inclusive education, social participation, gender equality, and the strengthening of human capacities—all of which are suppressed by the Taliban’s regime. Therefore, within the framework of Taliban ideology, achieving development is not only difficult but impossible.