French Researcher: Gaza Ceasefire is a “Distant and Uncertain Peace”

Kokcha News Agency – Pascal Boniface, the head of the French Institute for International and Strategic Relations, has expressed skepticism about the recent Gaza ceasefire agreement, calling it a “distant and uncertain peace.” In a post on his YouTube channel, Boniface warned that the ceasefire, announced by U.S. President Donald Trump as a result of his “impossible” intervention, should be approached with caution due to the lack of a clear plan and Israel’s historical record of failing to implement similar agreements.

Boniface highlighted several aspects of the agreement, including the release of Israeli prisoners, a ceasefire in Gaza, the cessation of bombings, access to humanitarian aid, and the release of Palestinian prisoners. However, he stressed that a ceasefire does not equate to peace. While the agreement is a positive step, it is not enough to ensure long-term stability.

The French researcher emphasized that the absence of a political vision and a plan to address the Palestinian issue could lead to renewed conflict and violence. He congratulated the parties on reaching the agreement but urged caution, as it could ultimately disappoint many who hope for a lasting resolution.

Boniface also pointed to the “uncertainty and lack of clarity” in the agreement, particularly regarding Hamas’s role, the future of Gaza, and the fate of the Palestinian government. He raised questions about the fate of Gaza’s displaced population, asking, “What will happen in Gaza? Will they stay? How will they be resettled? How will they feed themselves? How will infrastructure be rebuilt? What will happen to their property and housing? All of this is unclear; we must be very careful and vigilant.”

Boniface noted that neither Arab nor European countries have the tools or the will to pressure Israel and the United States. He also pointed out that while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s days in office may be numbered, with elections expected within the next year, he continues to claim that he has achieved his war goals by freeing prisoners and dismantling Hamas. However, Boniface argued that Netanyahu could have achieved these goals much earlier and is no longer favored by Trump.

Citing two articles by Yair Golan and Yair Lapid, two of Netanyahu’s main opponents, Boniface highlighted the uncertainty surrounding Palestine’s future within Israel’s political class. Both Golan and Lapid acknowledge that Israel is at risk of becoming a pariah state, with Netanyahu largely responsible for this. However, neither of them envisions a clear future for the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Boniface also expressed concerns about the involvement of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair in the proposed plan for Gaza, given Britain’s historical role in Palestine and the negative memories associated with Blair’s leadership during the Iraq War.

In conclusion, Boniface warned that without a real vision for peace, the ceasefire could lead to a return to violence. He stressed that as long as Israelis are unwilling to engage with Palestinians on equal terms, there will be no real peace in the Middle East.