California Could Declare Independence from the U.S.
Benjamin Cohen, a professor of international political economy at the University of California-Santa Barbara, has warned that California could declare independence from the U.S. by 2035, potentially triggering a civil war.
Benjamin Cohen, a professor at the University of California-Santa Barbara, has raised concerns that California could declare independence from the U.S. by 2035, a move that could lead to a civil war within the next decade.
In a hypothetical scenario outlined by Cohen, California’s secession could prompt the U.S. federal government, under a future president like JD Vance, to take aggressive measures, including the deployment of National Guard forces to Sacramento. Cohen warned that armed conflict is becoming increasingly likely as political polarization in the U.S. reaches a breaking point.
Rising Tensions Between States and the Federal Government
Cohen pointed to the growing movement in some states, particularly California, to pursue independence rather than remain part of the larger U.S. He emphasized that identity and community sentiment could override logic, making secession a real possibility.
According to a recent YouGov poll, 40% of Americans believe a civil war is “somewhat or very likely” within the next 10 years, with many predicting it would be fought between Republicans and Democrats rather than states.
Legal and Political Implications of Secession
If a state like California were to secede, it would effectively become an independent nation, rejecting the U.S. Constitution, federal laws, and the federal government. However, the U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that states cannot unilaterally secede without the consent of other states, making such a move illegal and likely to provoke a federal response.
Cohen suggested that Californians are increasingly interested in redrawing the country’s geographic boundaries to better align with their political ideologies.
Recent Tensions Between California and the Federal Government
The relationship between California and the federal government has been strained in recent years, particularly over immigration policies. President Donald Trump’s decision to send U.S. Marines and National Guard troops to California to quell protests against ICE raids further escalated tensions.
