China’s Ambitious Rail Project: Linking Afghanistan to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Reported by Kokcha News Agency

China is quietly but ambitiously working to reshape the heart of Eurasia through a transformative railway project that links Afghanistan to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). On May 21, foreign ministers from China, Pakistan, and the Taliban-led Afghan government met in Beijing to revive trilateral talks that began in 2017 and last convened in May 2023. While the meeting received limited media attention, it resulted in a significant agreement: the formal integration of CPEC with the long-planned but yet-to-be-built Trans-Afghan Railway (TAR).

This agreement marks a major shift in China’s infrastructure diplomacy, aiming to connect Central and South Asia through a strategic land bridge. The TAR, once completed, will be the first direct rail corridor linking Central and South Asia, providing landlocked Central Asian countries with direct access to the Arabian Sea via Pakistani ports like Gwadar and Karachi.

The Trans-Afghan Railway (TAR)
The TAR is a bold geopolitical bet by China’s regional partners, traversing some of the most politically fragile areas in Central and South Asia. While the final route is yet to be confirmed, one proposed plan connects Termez (Uzbekistan) to Peshawar (Pakistan) through key Afghan cities like Mazar-i-Sharif and Logar. This 600-kilometer rail corridor will offer Central Asian countries direct access to the Arabian Sea, while opening new land routes for South Asia to reach Central Asian and European markets, bypassing sanction-prone corridors in Iran and Russia.

Estimates suggest the $5 billion project could reduce transport time from 35 days to 5 days and cut costs by 40%. By 2030, it is expected to carry up to 15 million tons of cargo annually.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
CPEC, officially agreed upon by China and Pakistan in 2015, is the flagship project of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Spanning over 3,000 kilometers, it creates a vital trade route from China’s Xinjiang region to Pakistani ports on the Arabian Sea, including Gwadar, Port Qasim, and Karachi.

So far, China and Pakistan have completed 38 projects worth $25.2 billion, with 26 more projects worth $26.8 billion planned. The $65 billion project aims to boost trade, investment, economic cooperation, and regional connectivity through highways, railways, pipelines, energy infrastructure, and industrial zones.

Strategic Integration: Connecting the Two Projects
The integration of TAR with CPEC represents a significant evolution in China’s infrastructure diplomacy. What began as a bilateral corridor is now poised to form the backbone of a broader transregional network connecting China with Central and South Asia and the Arabian Sea, positioning Beijing as the architect of a new Eurasian connectivity order through the BRI.

China’s logic for integrating TAR with CPEC is threefold: simplifying Central Asia’s access to global markets via China, laying the groundwork for cross-border energy and digital infrastructure, and expanding its economic and geopolitical influence through long-term connectivity.

Challenges: Security, Land, and Legitimacy
However, significant challenges remain. The rail corridor will pass through regions prone to instability, conflict, and terrorism, making it vulnerable to disruption and sabotage. Internal instability in Afghanistan, exacerbated by active terrorist groups and ongoing tribal dynamics, further complicates the Taliban’s control.

Security concerns are heightened by the presence of groups like the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which threatens stability in Xinjiang and could destabilize the region. Additionally, technical and engineering challenges, such as navigating some of the world’s most rugged and earthquake-prone terrain, add to the complexity.

The integration of the Trans-Afghan Railway with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor has the potential to fundamentally reshape Eurasia’s energy security, trade routes, and diplomatic flows by creating a resilient, China-led land connectivity network. However, before this transformative vision can be realized, significant political, security, and technical hurdles must be overcome.