China’s Mega Dam Sparks Fear: “Over 100 Million People at Risk”

Kokcha News Agency: China’s mega dam project in Tibet has raised fears in India, as it could significantly reduce water flow in a major river by up to 85% during the dry season. According to a Reuters exclusive report, this situation has pushed New Delhi to speed up plans to construct its own dam to counter the potential effects.

The Indian government has been evaluating projects since the early 2000s to control the water flow from the Angsi Glacier in Tibet, which feeds over 100 million people downstream in China, India, and Bangladesh. However, these plans have faced resistance, sometimes violent, from residents of the border state of Arunachal Pradesh, who fear their villages could be submerged and their way of life destroyed.

In December, China announced plans to build the world’s largest hydroelectric dam on the Yarlung Zangbo River, just before it crosses into India. This has sparked concerns in New Delhi that China, a long-time strategic rival with territorial claims in Arunachal Pradesh, could use control over the river, known as the Siang and Brahmaputra in India, as a weapon.

In May, India’s largest hydroelectric company transported research materials under armed police protection near the proposed site of the Upper Siang Multipurpose Storage Dam, which, if completed, would be the country’s largest dam. Senior Indian officials have also held meetings this year to accelerate construction, including one organized by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s office in July.

Cost: $170 Billion
Delhi’s concerns were outlined in an undated Indian government analysis of the Chinese dam’s impact. Reuters confirmed details of the analysis with four sources and reported on it for the first time.

While Beijing has not disclosed detailed plans for the dam’s construction, the analysis is based on past studies by Indian government-linked institutions and takes into account the expected size of the Chinese project, which was launched in July and is estimated to cost around $170 billion.

Severe Impact During Non-Monsoon Months
According to sources and the document, Delhi estimates that the Chinese dam could allow Beijing to divert 40 billion cubic meters of water, more than a third of the annual flow at a key border point. The impact will be particularly severe during the non-monsoon months when temperatures rise and large parts of India face arid conditions.

Reduction to 11%
The Upper Siang project, with a projected storage capacity of 14 billion cubic meters, would mitigate this issue by allowing India to release water during the dry season. According to sources and the document, Guwahati, a major regional city dependent on water-intensive industries and agriculture, would experience a 25% reduction in water flow if the Indian dam is not built, but this would drop to 11% with the project in place.

The project could also mitigate Beijing’s attempts to release destructive water flows downstream, according to sources.