Report: NATO’s Military Spending Surge to Drastically Increase Greenhouse Gas Emissions

SOFIA (Kokcha.News) — A recent report highlights that the planned increase in military spending by NATO countries could significantly exacerbate global warming, adding 1,320 million tons of greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade. This amount is comparable to the annual carbon emissions of Brazil, the fifth-largest emitter globally.

According to the report, military activities are heavily reliant on fossil fuels, yet official data on military-related greenhouse gas emissions is either scattered or nonexistent. An analysis of 11 recent academic studies by Scientists for Global Responsibility found that every additional $100 billion in military spending results in approximately 32 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) emissions.

These emissions stem from direct sources such as fuel-intensive fighter jets, warships, and armored vehicles, as well as indirect sources like transportation equipment, complex global supply chains, and the effects of warfare.

NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, is a political and military alliance of 32 European and North American countries. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and increasing threats from U.S. President Donald Trump to abandon historical allies, NATO announced plans to increase military spending to 3.5% of GDP, part of a broader goal of 5% of GDP for each member country’s security budget.

The report estimates that achieving the 3.5% target would add 132 million tons of CO2 to the atmosphere, equivalent to the annual carbon pollution produced by 345 gas-fired power plants or the entire oil-producing nation of Oman. This planned increase is in addition to the $200 billion budget hike between 2019 and 2024, which has already increased NATO’s military carbon footprint by approximately 64 million tons of CO2.

Military-related greenhouse gas emissions are substantial but difficult to track, largely due to a lack of transparency and mandatory reporting.

However, the total military carbon footprint was estimated to be around 5.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2019—excluding emissions from warfare and post-war reconstruction. This figure exceeds the combined contributions of civilian aviation (2%) and shipping (3%).

Since then, global military spending has risen, reaching $2.72 trillion in 2024, the highest level since the end of the Cold War, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Israel’s military budget surged to $46.5 billion in 2024—the largest increase globally—amid ongoing bombings in Gaza, Syria, Iran, Yemen, and Lebanon. Meanwhile, the Pentagon’s budget is set to rise to $1 trillion by 2026, thanks to Trump’s tax and spending bill, marking a 17% increase from the previous year.

The report recommends that countries with military spending exceeding 0.5% of GDP be required to report robust data to the United Nations, collaborate on estimating conflict-related emissions, and develop plans to transition away from fossil fuels through technological and non-technological measures, including peace agreements, arms control, and disarmament initiatives.