Trump’s Road in Syunik Amidst the Fog of Rumors and Omissions

While Baku, as usual, speaks of the “Zangezur Corridor of Ilham Aliyev” with unimpeded transit of goods between mainland Azerbaijan, the Nakhchivan Autonomous Region, and Turkey, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan addresses a completely different issue: “There is an objective reality and a subjective perception. The objective reality is that Armenia and Azerbaijan have once again recognized each other’s territorial integrity, sovereignty, jurisdiction, and the inviolability of borders in Washington. Therefore, such communication routes can be established through the territory of Armenia. But the Republic of Armenia will decide on the implementation of the agreements.”

According to the Armenian Prime Minister, the document he signed will lead to the construction of infrastructure called “Trump’s Transit Road for International Peace and Prosperity” on Armenian soil. On September 9, representatives of the authorized U.S. trade delegation arrived in Azerbaijan to discuss expanding cooperation along the so-called Middle Corridor. The delegation was welcomed by Jeyhun Bayramov and Mikayil Jabbarov, the Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Economy of Azerbaijan, respectively. The parties discussed diversifying trade and energy routes, as well as the prospects for strengthening economic relations between Baku and Washington. The visiting guests highlighted “Azerbaijan’s long-standing efforts to revive and launch the Middle Corridor, including projects such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, the Baku International Sea Trade Port, and the Alat Free Economic Zone.”

In Baku, American companies were invited to actively take advantage of the favorable investment climate in the country and participate in joint projects in transportation, energy, and logistics. The Americans then traveled from Azerbaijan to Armenia, where, according to Ani Badalyan, the press secretary of the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, issues such as road and railway modernization, checkpoints, and logistics centers were discussed, which are expected to improve regional connectivity and create new business opportunities.

It is difficult to view the Americans’ trip to the two Caucasus republics, which coincided with intensified contacts in the Baku-Yerevan-Ankara “triangle” on border and transportation infrastructure issues, as coincidental. Last week, delegations from Armenia and Azerbaijan, led by Deputy Prime Ministers Shahin Mustafayev and Mher Grigoryan, made reciprocal working visits and discussed border demarcation, demining, and the reconstruction and construction of necessary facilities for coordination in the region.

There is also much talk about the upcoming meeting between Ruben Rubinyan and Sedar Kılıç, the special representatives of Armenia and Turkey, at the Alijan-Margara border crossing to normalize bilateral relations. According to Rubinyan, “There is no problem on Armenia’s part. We are ready to open the borders and establish diplomatic relations tomorrow.”

All of this seems like an attempt to begin implementing the August 8 Washington agreements, which remain largely hidden from the public. As Ilgar Valizadeh, the author of the Telegram channel “Caspian Messenger,” pointed out, Washington is apparently “seeking to reach practical agreements in the near future, possibly by the end of the year.”

In contrast, “Yerevan Watch” focuses on contentious issues, including the leasing of railway lines and the potential operation of the highway (the Americans insist, while Pashinyan hesitates). “Baku firmly opposes inspections by Armenian officials. The only thing Azerbaijanis are willing to do is provide inspection documents on the Azerbaijani side to Armenians. Armenia’s position is to firmly fence the road so that all the needs of drivers and passengers, from gas stations to cafes, are met within this area. And here, the services will apparently be entrusted to the Americans.”

Additionally, “the United States demands the complete transfer of all customs and border documents to its software. Armenia has almost accepted this, but Azerbaijan is not interested in doing so. Besides political issues, commercial issues have also ‘not been addressed.’ The Americans are demanding exorbitant fees from Azerbaijan for their services, while Azerbaijan, for its part, does not want to pay transit fees to Armenia and others.”

According to recent polling data from the Gallup International Association in Armenia, about 48% of Armenian citizens have a negative view of the Washington agreements.

Thus, unresolved issues still far outweigh possible answers, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated the day before: “We need to see how this agreement (between Yerevan and Baku) will work. Because all the enthusiastic opinions heard in the first few days after the Washington meeting turned into pessimistic assessments after the document was published. It turns out that not all issues were agreed upon there.”

Moreover, there is reason to believe that Baku and Yerevan, in their dialogue with the White House, have, in simpler terms, shared the achievements of the trilateral intergovernmental commission between Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. As Alexey Overchuk, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation, noted: “If the partners turn to us and we can somehow be useful, of course, we will gladly continue to do so.”

During the Eastern Economic Forum, Overchuk said: “The trilateral working group of Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia has finalized all necessary decisions for reopening communications in the South Caucasus, and now negotiations between the parties continue in the form of bilateral contacts.” Overchuk added: “Since the beginning of July 2023, this group has not held meetings. But interaction at the bilateral level continues. We regularly exchange views and information on the current situation. The co-chairs of this group are also my colleagues in the intergovernmental commissions. Therefore, our communications remain active. While performing painstaking work, the group pays attention to the smallest details and various aspects of reopening the Caucasus. All issues have been carefully considered, and decisive steps for the next steps have been developed.”

It seems unlikely that these next steps will be taken “under the umbrella” of the Trump administration, which can barely point to the Caucasus on a map and confuses Armenia with Albania. According to Alexey Overchuk, there are concerns that the presence of extra-regional players could disrupt the balance of “this fragile region.”

Thus, it is more prudent for Baku and Yerevan to pursue a bilateral normalization plan based on a series of trilateral agreements between Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia in 2020-2022, including the signing of a peace treaty on Russian soil (or in the territory of a friendly country), the reopening of transport communications, and steps to define the Armenia-Azerbaijan border in the Syunik region and other areas.